Not *too* bad last week, going 10-4 on the predictions, but of course some of the ones I felt would be handy turned out to be heartstoppers. This weekend is primarily a hurling weekend, with Provincial deciders in Ulster and Leinster, and Phase II Qualifiers in Limerick and Galway. There is a dash of football thrown into the mix with the eagerly awaited Munster final down in Killarney. As always, any comments, feel free to add your tuppence worth.
* Odds correct (Paddy Power) as of Friday morning.
Ulster Senior Hurling Final
Sunday July 3rd
Antrim v Armagh. Casement Park 3.30pm. (Ref. Declan Magee)
People say the Ulster championship has been devalued since the structural changes in the All Ireland Senior Hurling Championship, and there's no doubt that Antrim's inclusion into Leinster, and Ulster losing their automatic spot in the All Ireland series has been a big change for hurling lovers up north, but this final has a real sense of occasion and curiosity surrounding it. Antrim, in conjunction with their dual mandate, are parachuted into the Ulster Final every year, and are attempting to win their 10th title in a row. Their challengers in that period have been Down, and to a lesser extent Derry and New York, so this year sees a real change of scenery for them, as they face Armagh. The orchard county are appearing in their first final since 1946, and while football remains the dominant game in Armagh, by a long way, there are encouraging signs that the underage work with the small ball is gaining traction. This final appearance is a tangible reward for the hurling people in Armagh, and the fact that they overturned the form book in the semi final against Down (who had beaten them by 17 points in the Christy Ring Cup a short while ago) is a great acheivement. Antrim are overwhelming favourites, and rightly so. Slowly but surely the glensmen are getting used to facing a higher standard of opposition on a semi regular basis, and they have already played 4 games in the Leinster and All Ireland series. That said, they have another game to focus on next weekend, in Phase III of the qualifiers, and Dinny Cahill has thus decided to use the Ulster Final to try out a few other players on the fringe of the first 15. He makes 11 changes to the team that beat Carlow last weekend. Given that this is Armagh's last game of the year, come what may, and it's not Antrim's last game regardless of the result, I'd expect Armagh to wire into Antrim early on, and try and examine their appetite for a battle. I do think Antrim will weather that, and with the help of a couple of goals run out handy enough winners in the end, but promising times for Armagh.
Odds. Antrim 1/14; Armagh 7/1; Draw 16/1
Verdict. Antrim by 10.
Leinster Senior Hurling Final
Sunday July 3rd
Kilkenny v Dublin. Croke Park 4.00pm. (Ref. Barry Kelly)
Live on RTE
It's a sign of the changing times in hurling that Dublin's appearance in the Leinster Senior Hurling Final has barely raised a murmer around the hurling fraternity. Their newfound standing in the game is a testament to the work that has gone in at underage level in the capital for the past 10-15 years or more, while Anthony Daly's arrival has added extra impetus and direction to the Senior bandwagon, and they have certainly arrived as serious contenders in Leinster. Whether or not they can take that next step, and become serious contenders for an All Ireland, is the question, and Sunday will go a long way towards answering that particular teaser.
There's no doubt that their dismantling of Kilkenny in the National League Final was impressive, and indeed bore more than a passing resemblence to the destruction Kilkenny themselves wrought upon Waterford in an All Ireland final a few short years ago. The sight of Kilkenny hanging on for dear life as their opponents kick for the finish line and fire points over from all angles is a very rare sight indeed, but it is what we saw on that spring day in Croker.
However, this is different. This is July. This is Leinster Championship. This is a final. And this is the line in the sand that Dublin must cross. They've dealt with the challenges thrown up by Offaly and Galway in solid if unspectacular fashion, as befits a team of growing maturity, and now they face the team they surely knew would be standing in their way on this particular Sunday. Kilkenny will be better than the league final, of that I have little doubt. Henry Shefflin's return will boost the forwards, while Tommy Walsh will be a significant addition to a half backline that struggled with Conal Keaney and Ryan O'Dwyer in the league final. O'Dwyer's absence thanks to a silly red card versus Galway may be very significant in the context of this game.
This Dublin team was made to measure for a tilt against Kilkenny. They have the physicality to match and beat the Cats, and the hurling to make any physical advantage tell on the scoreboard. The one thing they don't have is experience of winning games in the Championship against the truly big teams, and this is something Kilkenny have over them. A win on Sunday would address that in spades, but I just have a sneaky suspicion that if the game is close coming into the last quarter, Kilkenny will have enough to see them home for their 7th title in a row, and their 12th since 1998.
Odds. Kilkenny 4/11; Dublin 5/2; Draw 10/1
Verdict. Kilkenny by 3
All Ireland Senior Hurling Championship, Phase II Qualifier
Saturday July 2nd.
Limerick v Wexford. Gaelic Grounds, Limerick 5.00pm. (Ref. Michael Wadding)
The first of the phase II qualifiers gets underway at 5 o'clock in the Ennis Road venue, as resurgent Limerick welcome Leinster visitors Wexford with a place in the Phase III round at stake. It's been a year of progress and redemption so far for Limerick, as they continue to put last year's misery behind them under the guidance of Donal O'Grady. Objective 1 was achieved in regaining their division 1 status, and while Objective 1a, an appearance in the Munster Final, was missed, it was missed by the narrowest of margins. Indeed that display against Waterford eased the worries of Limerick fans who feared a spring in Division 2 would render them incompetent when the rubber hit the road in the summer. It's in the history books now that Waterford prevailed with a last minute goal from John Mullane, but Limerick will take a lot from that performance, and are looking to put a run together in the qualifiers at this stage.
Wexford will also be pleased with their spring work, as two big performances against Cork and Tipperary saved them from the drop at Offaly's expense, however their championship outing against Kilkenny was far more disappointing than Limerick's exit. It seemed set up for Wexford to produce one of their traditional challenges to their old rivals, with home advantage, Kilkenny slightly vulnerable, and with a large crowd having already witnessed the Wexford footballers win well beforehand. It just never happened for them though, and Kilkenny strolled through the game really, apart from a goal just before half time. Wexford can hurl, but so can Limerick, and the battle around midfield may be vital. Donal O'Grady had a big game against Waterford, and if he can get ball into their new impressive forwards of Kevin Downes and Declan Hannon, then Limerick should have enough at home to see them through.
Odds.Limerick 4/9; Wexford 2/1; Draw 10/1
Verdict. Limerick by 4
Saturday July 2nd
Calway v Clare. Pearse Stadium, Salthill 7.00pm. (Ref. Diarmuid Kirwin)
Live on RTE
The second of Saturday's phase II qualifers sees the fascinating clash of neighbours Galway and Clare, as the banner make the short journey up the new motorway to Salthill. Clare will have been encouraged by their showing against Tipperary, particularly in the early going, and but for goals at opportune times in that game, Tipp were in big trouble. However, if Clare could not get up for Tipp in the Munster Championship, things would be dire indeed, and so that performance may not be a good indicator of their true level. There's no doubt that they do have some quality in their side, and their All Ireland Under 21 team provides a boost to the squad. Forwards like Conor McGrath and veteran Diarmuid McMahon can cause problems, and certainly the Galway defence did not look like a solid unit against Dublin.
What can you say about Galway? They've been promising great things and have a conveyer belt of talent for years, but they simply never seem to perform when it matters. We had been told for years and years that their lack of competition in Connacht was holding them back, and handing an unfair advantage to the Leinster and Munster counties in August and September. It has to be said, though, that since Galway have come into the Leinster fold, their performances haven't been much different and so the search for answers continues.
You would have thought that being criticised by their childhood heroes would have sparked some response from Galway, and it's worrying that despite having their mental strength, abilities and right to even wear the famous jersey questioned, they couldn't raise a gallop against Dublin. When men like Conor Hayes, Noel Lane and Brendan Lynskey call you out like that, you'd hope to respond more forcefully than what Galway managed in Tullamore.
However, there are changes in the Galway side, and I think it makes them a better team. Ger Farragher comes back in, and while I'm unconvinced about his positioning at centre forward as picked, he would have been a great addition in terms of the freetaking against Dublin. Joe Canning is a class act, but he had a bad day with the dead ball against Dublin, and it would have been a big bonus were Farragher there to take over. Iarla Tannian and Alan Kerins also return to the forward line, giving a bit more bite and liveliness there, while Shane Kavanagh resumes at full back. Portumna's Andy Smith comes into midfield, and the Galway side just looks more balanced and dangerous. I'm going to go down the road travelled by many fools, and tip Galway to come good.
Odds. Galway 2/5; Clare 12/5; Draw 11/1
Verdict. Galway by 6.
Munster Senior Football Final
Sunday July 3rd
Kerry v Cork. Fitzgerald Stadium, Killarney 2.00pm. (Ref. David Coldrick)
Live on RTE
The latest edition of one of football's best and famous rivalries takes place in the beautiful surrounds of Fitzgerald Stadium, as hosts and Munster Champions Kerry entertain their nearest and dearest rivals, the All Ireland Champions Cork. This is a friendly rivalry, without doubt, as a stroll in downtown Killarney on Sunday morning will testify. The amount of couples declaring split loyalties, with one proudly wearing the Green and Gold, or the Blood and Bandages, as their partner sports the other colour is remarkable, even among neighbouring counties, and I think it's true to say that no other county in Ireland 'gets' Cork the way Kerry people do, and vice versa.
That said, it's also a fierce rivalry, and they hate losing to each other. Kerry are obviously the pre-eminent force historically in gaelic football, and Cork people were often relying on the hurling to be their port in a storm of Kerry slagging. However the tables are turned this year, at least in the sense that Cork are All Ireland Champions, and the best team in the country at the moment as well. Kerry people will point to the fact that Cork didn't beat Kerry in winning their All Ireland, and Kerry's munster win last year hangs over Cork, yet another little straw in the psychological barrier that this Cork team seems to have with Kerry. As a Kerry friend of mine says, 'Cork can beat Kerry anywhere except Killarney or Croke Park'. That narrows the options a bit obviously, but there is a grain of truth in it. Cork have not won in Killarney in 16 years, and their travails against the old enemy in Croke Park is infamous at this stage.
Kerry have the forwards to beat anybody. End of story. Declan O'Sullivan, for my money, is one of the best footballers in the country, if not the best, and is hugely important to Kerry in the way he hoovers up ball, drives forward and sets up scores or finishes themselves. Gooch is obviously a class act, while the effectiveness of Kieran Donaghy on the edge of the square is renowned at this stage. There are no bad Kerry forwards, and the replacements on the bench would probably get onto at least 26 other county teams. The thing about having great forwards, though, is that you have to give them the ball. There's a major question mark about Kerry in midfield and in the half back line, in my opinion, and so there's a real danger that Donaghy, O'Sullivan and even Gooch might get sucked back out the field trying to pick up ball there. If that happens, Cork will be well on their way.
For it not to happen, a huge performance is needed from Bryan Sheehan and Anthony Maher, as well as the two half lines. Sheehan and Maher are fine ball playing footballers, but whether they are dynamic or forceful enough to compete with the strongest part of the Cork team is doubtful. That being the case, the loss of Paul Galvin and Tomás O'Sé will be felt even more, and a lot of pressure will bear down on Eoin Brosnan at centre back. Brosnan is a great footballer, but his strength is in moving forward. In games where Kerry are on top, he is another lethal weapon bearing down on the opposition half and full back lines, and he can score or set up scores with ease. Whether or not he can survive in a game where Kerry are under pressure is another matter, and may well be tested this Sunday. If Brosnan, O'Mahoney and Young are unable to stand strong, then a Kerry full back line that conceded 3 goals in the midst of a one sided victory over Limerick would be facing a really stern examination, one that they may not be ready for.
Cork are big, fast, strong, direct and most importantly, good. Powerful is probably the best all encompassing adjective. Winning Sam will obviously help their development, but for them to march on to the next level they will need to start beating Kerry in the really big games, ideally in Croke Park. This game is not an All Ireland series match, but a win in Killarney would be a real marker that this Cork team has had enough of Kerry, and is good enough and has gotten mentally strong enough to beat them anywhere.
Cork have leaders and big men, physically and reputationally, all over the field, and the likes of Graham Canty, Aidan Walsh, Alan O'Connor, John Miskella, Pierse O'Neill, Daniel Goulding and Donnacha O'Connor are real All Star calibre players.
It's very hard to go against Kerry in Killarney, and with Corks pyschology still unproven in these sort of games, you'd nearly be inclined to give Kerry the nod. If, however, you are trying to predict games, sometimes you have to ask yourself "which team is better, with the intangibles removed?". In this case it's Cork.
Odds. Kerry 11/10; Cork 11/10; Draw 13/2
Verdict. Cork by 3.
* Odds correct (Paddy Power) as of Friday morning.
Ulster Senior Hurling Final
Sunday July 3rd
Antrim v Armagh. Casement Park 3.30pm. (Ref. Declan Magee)
People say the Ulster championship has been devalued since the structural changes in the All Ireland Senior Hurling Championship, and there's no doubt that Antrim's inclusion into Leinster, and Ulster losing their automatic spot in the All Ireland series has been a big change for hurling lovers up north, but this final has a real sense of occasion and curiosity surrounding it. Antrim, in conjunction with their dual mandate, are parachuted into the Ulster Final every year, and are attempting to win their 10th title in a row. Their challengers in that period have been Down, and to a lesser extent Derry and New York, so this year sees a real change of scenery for them, as they face Armagh. The orchard county are appearing in their first final since 1946, and while football remains the dominant game in Armagh, by a long way, there are encouraging signs that the underage work with the small ball is gaining traction. This final appearance is a tangible reward for the hurling people in Armagh, and the fact that they overturned the form book in the semi final against Down (who had beaten them by 17 points in the Christy Ring Cup a short while ago) is a great acheivement. Antrim are overwhelming favourites, and rightly so. Slowly but surely the glensmen are getting used to facing a higher standard of opposition on a semi regular basis, and they have already played 4 games in the Leinster and All Ireland series. That said, they have another game to focus on next weekend, in Phase III of the qualifiers, and Dinny Cahill has thus decided to use the Ulster Final to try out a few other players on the fringe of the first 15. He makes 11 changes to the team that beat Carlow last weekend. Given that this is Armagh's last game of the year, come what may, and it's not Antrim's last game regardless of the result, I'd expect Armagh to wire into Antrim early on, and try and examine their appetite for a battle. I do think Antrim will weather that, and with the help of a couple of goals run out handy enough winners in the end, but promising times for Armagh.
Odds. Antrim 1/14; Armagh 7/1; Draw 16/1
Verdict. Antrim by 10.
Leinster Senior Hurling Final
Sunday July 3rd
Kilkenny v Dublin. Croke Park 4.00pm. (Ref. Barry Kelly)
Live on RTE
It's a sign of the changing times in hurling that Dublin's appearance in the Leinster Senior Hurling Final has barely raised a murmer around the hurling fraternity. Their newfound standing in the game is a testament to the work that has gone in at underage level in the capital for the past 10-15 years or more, while Anthony Daly's arrival has added extra impetus and direction to the Senior bandwagon, and they have certainly arrived as serious contenders in Leinster. Whether or not they can take that next step, and become serious contenders for an All Ireland, is the question, and Sunday will go a long way towards answering that particular teaser.
There's no doubt that their dismantling of Kilkenny in the National League Final was impressive, and indeed bore more than a passing resemblence to the destruction Kilkenny themselves wrought upon Waterford in an All Ireland final a few short years ago. The sight of Kilkenny hanging on for dear life as their opponents kick for the finish line and fire points over from all angles is a very rare sight indeed, but it is what we saw on that spring day in Croker.
However, this is different. This is July. This is Leinster Championship. This is a final. And this is the line in the sand that Dublin must cross. They've dealt with the challenges thrown up by Offaly and Galway in solid if unspectacular fashion, as befits a team of growing maturity, and now they face the team they surely knew would be standing in their way on this particular Sunday. Kilkenny will be better than the league final, of that I have little doubt. Henry Shefflin's return will boost the forwards, while Tommy Walsh will be a significant addition to a half backline that struggled with Conal Keaney and Ryan O'Dwyer in the league final. O'Dwyer's absence thanks to a silly red card versus Galway may be very significant in the context of this game.
This Dublin team was made to measure for a tilt against Kilkenny. They have the physicality to match and beat the Cats, and the hurling to make any physical advantage tell on the scoreboard. The one thing they don't have is experience of winning games in the Championship against the truly big teams, and this is something Kilkenny have over them. A win on Sunday would address that in spades, but I just have a sneaky suspicion that if the game is close coming into the last quarter, Kilkenny will have enough to see them home for their 7th title in a row, and their 12th since 1998.
Odds. Kilkenny 4/11; Dublin 5/2; Draw 10/1
Verdict. Kilkenny by 3
All Ireland Senior Hurling Championship, Phase II Qualifier
Saturday July 2nd.
Limerick v Wexford. Gaelic Grounds, Limerick 5.00pm. (Ref. Michael Wadding)
The first of the phase II qualifiers gets underway at 5 o'clock in the Ennis Road venue, as resurgent Limerick welcome Leinster visitors Wexford with a place in the Phase III round at stake. It's been a year of progress and redemption so far for Limerick, as they continue to put last year's misery behind them under the guidance of Donal O'Grady. Objective 1 was achieved in regaining their division 1 status, and while Objective 1a, an appearance in the Munster Final, was missed, it was missed by the narrowest of margins. Indeed that display against Waterford eased the worries of Limerick fans who feared a spring in Division 2 would render them incompetent when the rubber hit the road in the summer. It's in the history books now that Waterford prevailed with a last minute goal from John Mullane, but Limerick will take a lot from that performance, and are looking to put a run together in the qualifiers at this stage.
Wexford will also be pleased with their spring work, as two big performances against Cork and Tipperary saved them from the drop at Offaly's expense, however their championship outing against Kilkenny was far more disappointing than Limerick's exit. It seemed set up for Wexford to produce one of their traditional challenges to their old rivals, with home advantage, Kilkenny slightly vulnerable, and with a large crowd having already witnessed the Wexford footballers win well beforehand. It just never happened for them though, and Kilkenny strolled through the game really, apart from a goal just before half time. Wexford can hurl, but so can Limerick, and the battle around midfield may be vital. Donal O'Grady had a big game against Waterford, and if he can get ball into their new impressive forwards of Kevin Downes and Declan Hannon, then Limerick should have enough at home to see them through.
Odds.Limerick 4/9; Wexford 2/1; Draw 10/1
Verdict. Limerick by 4
Saturday July 2nd
Calway v Clare. Pearse Stadium, Salthill 7.00pm. (Ref. Diarmuid Kirwin)
Live on RTE
The second of Saturday's phase II qualifers sees the fascinating clash of neighbours Galway and Clare, as the banner make the short journey up the new motorway to Salthill. Clare will have been encouraged by their showing against Tipperary, particularly in the early going, and but for goals at opportune times in that game, Tipp were in big trouble. However, if Clare could not get up for Tipp in the Munster Championship, things would be dire indeed, and so that performance may not be a good indicator of their true level. There's no doubt that they do have some quality in their side, and their All Ireland Under 21 team provides a boost to the squad. Forwards like Conor McGrath and veteran Diarmuid McMahon can cause problems, and certainly the Galway defence did not look like a solid unit against Dublin.
What can you say about Galway? They've been promising great things and have a conveyer belt of talent for years, but they simply never seem to perform when it matters. We had been told for years and years that their lack of competition in Connacht was holding them back, and handing an unfair advantage to the Leinster and Munster counties in August and September. It has to be said, though, that since Galway have come into the Leinster fold, their performances haven't been much different and so the search for answers continues.
You would have thought that being criticised by their childhood heroes would have sparked some response from Galway, and it's worrying that despite having their mental strength, abilities and right to even wear the famous jersey questioned, they couldn't raise a gallop against Dublin. When men like Conor Hayes, Noel Lane and Brendan Lynskey call you out like that, you'd hope to respond more forcefully than what Galway managed in Tullamore.
However, there are changes in the Galway side, and I think it makes them a better team. Ger Farragher comes back in, and while I'm unconvinced about his positioning at centre forward as picked, he would have been a great addition in terms of the freetaking against Dublin. Joe Canning is a class act, but he had a bad day with the dead ball against Dublin, and it would have been a big bonus were Farragher there to take over. Iarla Tannian and Alan Kerins also return to the forward line, giving a bit more bite and liveliness there, while Shane Kavanagh resumes at full back. Portumna's Andy Smith comes into midfield, and the Galway side just looks more balanced and dangerous. I'm going to go down the road travelled by many fools, and tip Galway to come good.
Odds. Galway 2/5; Clare 12/5; Draw 11/1
Verdict. Galway by 6.
Munster Senior Football Final
Sunday July 3rd
Kerry v Cork. Fitzgerald Stadium, Killarney 2.00pm. (Ref. David Coldrick)
Live on RTE
The latest edition of one of football's best and famous rivalries takes place in the beautiful surrounds of Fitzgerald Stadium, as hosts and Munster Champions Kerry entertain their nearest and dearest rivals, the All Ireland Champions Cork. This is a friendly rivalry, without doubt, as a stroll in downtown Killarney on Sunday morning will testify. The amount of couples declaring split loyalties, with one proudly wearing the Green and Gold, or the Blood and Bandages, as their partner sports the other colour is remarkable, even among neighbouring counties, and I think it's true to say that no other county in Ireland 'gets' Cork the way Kerry people do, and vice versa.
That said, it's also a fierce rivalry, and they hate losing to each other. Kerry are obviously the pre-eminent force historically in gaelic football, and Cork people were often relying on the hurling to be their port in a storm of Kerry slagging. However the tables are turned this year, at least in the sense that Cork are All Ireland Champions, and the best team in the country at the moment as well. Kerry people will point to the fact that Cork didn't beat Kerry in winning their All Ireland, and Kerry's munster win last year hangs over Cork, yet another little straw in the psychological barrier that this Cork team seems to have with Kerry. As a Kerry friend of mine says, 'Cork can beat Kerry anywhere except Killarney or Croke Park'. That narrows the options a bit obviously, but there is a grain of truth in it. Cork have not won in Killarney in 16 years, and their travails against the old enemy in Croke Park is infamous at this stage.
Kerry have the forwards to beat anybody. End of story. Declan O'Sullivan, for my money, is one of the best footballers in the country, if not the best, and is hugely important to Kerry in the way he hoovers up ball, drives forward and sets up scores or finishes themselves. Gooch is obviously a class act, while the effectiveness of Kieran Donaghy on the edge of the square is renowned at this stage. There are no bad Kerry forwards, and the replacements on the bench would probably get onto at least 26 other county teams. The thing about having great forwards, though, is that you have to give them the ball. There's a major question mark about Kerry in midfield and in the half back line, in my opinion, and so there's a real danger that Donaghy, O'Sullivan and even Gooch might get sucked back out the field trying to pick up ball there. If that happens, Cork will be well on their way.
For it not to happen, a huge performance is needed from Bryan Sheehan and Anthony Maher, as well as the two half lines. Sheehan and Maher are fine ball playing footballers, but whether they are dynamic or forceful enough to compete with the strongest part of the Cork team is doubtful. That being the case, the loss of Paul Galvin and Tomás O'Sé will be felt even more, and a lot of pressure will bear down on Eoin Brosnan at centre back. Brosnan is a great footballer, but his strength is in moving forward. In games where Kerry are on top, he is another lethal weapon bearing down on the opposition half and full back lines, and he can score or set up scores with ease. Whether or not he can survive in a game where Kerry are under pressure is another matter, and may well be tested this Sunday. If Brosnan, O'Mahoney and Young are unable to stand strong, then a Kerry full back line that conceded 3 goals in the midst of a one sided victory over Limerick would be facing a really stern examination, one that they may not be ready for.
Cork are big, fast, strong, direct and most importantly, good. Powerful is probably the best all encompassing adjective. Winning Sam will obviously help their development, but for them to march on to the next level they will need to start beating Kerry in the really big games, ideally in Croke Park. This game is not an All Ireland series match, but a win in Killarney would be a real marker that this Cork team has had enough of Kerry, and is good enough and has gotten mentally strong enough to beat them anywhere.
Cork have leaders and big men, physically and reputationally, all over the field, and the likes of Graham Canty, Aidan Walsh, Alan O'Connor, John Miskella, Pierse O'Neill, Daniel Goulding and Donnacha O'Connor are real All Star calibre players.
It's very hard to go against Kerry in Killarney, and with Corks pyschology still unproven in these sort of games, you'd nearly be inclined to give Kerry the nod. If, however, you are trying to predict games, sometimes you have to ask yourself "which team is better, with the intangibles removed?". In this case it's Cork.
Odds. Kerry 11/10; Cork 11/10; Draw 13/2
Verdict. Cork by 3.
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