Cast your mind back to Sunday, May 29th of this year. Mayo, coming off a horrendous championship season in 2010, face a nice comfortable debut in the 2011 renewal with a trip to London. A championship game away from home, a bit of shopping for the supporters who made the journey, and a convincing win to start off James Horan's term in charge of the green above the red. Except that's not how it worked out at all. Put to the pin of their collars by a London team that hadn't won a championship game in 34 years and had a permanent place booked in Division 4, Mayo were blessed and relieved to escape from Ruislip with a 3 point win after extra time. At that, they needed two late points to force the additional period. All hell broke loose for a brief period, as panic became the order of the day, and all predictions pointed to a short, painful, summer. In hindsight, maybe the 2 late points were an early hint as to the mental resolve in this team.
Now roll forward to Sunday, July 31st. 63 days later. 9 weeks. And apparently a sports lifetime apart. Mayo rehabilitated, albeit unconvincingly in two of the worst days' weather of the summer, in Connacht facing the All Ireland Champions and red hot favourites Cork. What transpired that day has already made James Horan's first year a resounding success in most Mayo fans' eyes, barring capitulation tomorrow. The hunger, pride, intensity and quality displayed by Mayo that day simply blew Cork away, and suddenly Ireland is sitting up and taking notice. The wind is back in the Mayo fans' sails, and they are contenders again. Offer that scenario to any Mayo fan glumly surveying the wreckage of Pearse Park last summer, or even contemplating their bitten fingernails in Ruislip in May, and they'd have said that was too wildly optimistic even for a Mayo fan. As an outsider, Mayo are a great county of fans to watch. They care so deeply about their football, as many fans do, but they swing wildly from boundless optimism to crushing pessimism like a weather vane when the wind changes. In fairness to them, it's easy to see why that would be the case as days like Longford and London often sit in very close proximity to days like Dublin, Tyrone and now Cork. How in the name of God can the fans decide which mood to be in when you never know what Mayo will produce on the pitch the next day?
And so we cast our eye towards tomorrow. What Mayo side will turn up? And what Kerry side will turn up? Will Mayo be able to repeat the intensity and quality they showed against Cork? I have no doubt they will repeat the intensity, but will the quality be there? Will Kerry be as obliging as Cork in their lack of ideas and in allowing Mayo to dominate possession? Will Kerry be undercooked following an extremely disappointing and lack lustre performance by Limerick in the quarter final? What is the real Kerry? Is it the team that blew away Cork in the first half, or is it the team that barely hung on in the same game as they spent themselves in that blitz? Questions, questions, questions. So how about a few possible answers?
The fact of the matter is, if one was to draw a form line through Cork, it would be easy to make a case for Mayo to win this tomorrow. The manner of Mayo's demolition of the champions was less impressive than Kerry's tour de force in the first half in Killarney but it was a much more sustained and dominant display for the vast majority of the game. Kerry could easily have been caught that day, after a bit of a collapse in the second half, but for a late shot hitting the post rather than the twines, whereas Mayo looked nailed on winners from a long way out in the quarter final.
That would be too simplistic however, I believe. Notwithstanding Mayo's preeminence in the physical and ball winning exchanges, Cork did manage to win a bit of ball, and you would have to think that the absence of Ciaran Sheehan, Colm O'Neill and Daniel Goulding was a major factor in Mayo being able to render their attack toothless. Cork may have survived on scraps with a full complement of forwards, but when Mayo were able to shut down Donnacha O'Connor, Paddy Kelly and Paul Kerrigan, that was job done at the back. Against Kerry, shutting down Declan O'Sullivan, Colm Cooper and Kieran Donaghy (which will be harder to do in any case) does not mean you have blunted Kerry as Kieran O'Leary, Darren O'Sullivan, Bryan Sheehan and even the likes of Tomás O'Sé, Killian Young and Eoin Brosnan have proven pedigree in the scoring stakes.
For that reason, more than ever and even more than against Cork, this game will be won and lost in the middle of the field and the half lines. If Kerry, through the surprising Bryan Sheehan and Anthony Maher, can gain a foothold here, supported by the likes of Donnacha Walsh, Tomás O'Sé, Declan O'Sullivan and Aidan O'Mahoney, then their forwards will have enough gas, in my opinion, to post a winning score.
If, however, the likes of Trevor Mortimor, Andy Moran and the O'Shea brothers can get a real stranglehold around here, there is no reason why Mayo cannot win. The Kerry backs are underestimated in my opinion, and while we saw Dublin tear Tyrone asunder, it's a big ask to expect Mayo to do the same just because there are a few 30 somethings in the Kingdom rearguard. However, if Mayo can play the game downhill, i.e. everything running towards the Kerry goal, then I would expect them to have enough gumption to post a winning margin.
I don't think this will be a blowout, like 2004 and 2006, because Mayo have demonstrated enough physical and mental strength this year to suggest they are stronger in both departments, but I just think it's an awful lot to ask a team at this level to win 70-30 around the middle, and I think that's what Mayo need. Kerry have Paul Galvin and Seamus Scanlon to introduce if that looks like happening, and I can't see it coming to pass. If Kerry can swing the pendulum towards 40-60 or even 50-50, then I cannot see the Mayo backs being able to shut them down like Cork. If the game pans out that way, I expect Kieran Donaghy to be a big influence in at full forward, along with Declan O'Sullivan, and Colm Cooper is due a high scoring game, as he has been quiet enough in that department, even if Kerry folk will tell you he is playing well in his overall contribution. If Donaghy is forced to come out the field, it will be an indication that Mayo are on the right track, because while Declan O'Sullivan can play well at #14, Kerry's balance is a lot better with him directing traffic at #11. Trevor Mortimer has a big job on tomorrow against O'Sullivan, if they line out that way, and his reported injury worries will not help in that area. O'Sullivan is not a lad to face at less than 100%.
The two biggest question marks for me with Kerry are a) are they at the level of intensity they need to be for a semi final? and b) is their midfield really as decent as it has looked?
For Mayo, the questions are a) Can they better the Cork performance in the middle third, b) if they do can their forwards score enough and c) if they don't, will their backs hold out.
I think the questions facing Mayo are harder to answer, and while I don't expect Kerry to blitz them, barring a couple of early goals, I can still see Kerry having enough ball, and the nous to use it well, to see them home by 5-7 points. I think it will be closer than that on the field, but I suspect Kerry may score the goals that will give them breathing space. If it's level or better for Mayo with 15 minutes to go, I reserve the right to change my mind because I think Mayo will win if that's the case, but I just can't see it.
Verdict. Kerry by 5
There are a lot of “ifs” in there, Shane, whether stated or not.
ReplyDeleteBut every one of them implies that there is a “But on the other hand,..” to consider and there are a lot of buts there as well.
If Mayo produce a display like the one in Ruislip, they may as well go home at half time. But on the other hand, if Kerry had to travel by the same circuitous route to get there, they might well have done worse.
If Mayo are indeed in the ‘joke football’ category, like Pat Spillane declared, they won’t have a hope. On the other hand, if Pat had to watch the game from the terraces, he would have changed his tune. The conditions that day were the worst I have ever encountered at a championship game and what was seen on TV was far removed from reality.
The list goes on; really, no one can predict anything with certainty.
Kerry on their second half display in the Munster Final wouldn’t beat Mayo going on their second half display against the same opposition.
James Horan has plenty of worries to hinder his sleep tonight but I’d say Jack O’Connor will have a few of his own to cut his forty winks by half.