And so we come to the penultimate tie of the 2011 All Ireland Senior Hurling Championship. The fact that the Dubs find themselves in championship hurling action on the 2nd Sunday of August is testament to the progress they have made, and can point to, in 2011. The likelihood of them continuing to be involved as the calendar rolls over to September, however, seems unlikely.
Dublin's cause is not helped by their long injury list, many of them long term, as they fell prey to the dreaded cruciate many times this year. How they would love to have the likes of Stephen Hiney, Tomás Brady, Conal Keaney, David Treacy and Oisin Gough in harness as they bid to dethrone the champions.
Of course the primary obstacle in Dublin's path is Tipperary themselves. A team that has been maturing steadily over the past 3-4 years and can now claim to be the best in the game having displaced possibly the greatest team of all time, Kilkenny's great 4 in a row side, last year. In fairness Tipperary do not seem to have rested on their laurels, as was predicted by several sage observers, and have, if anything, developed an even more ruthless streak than last year. This was never so pronounced as in the Munster Final 7 goal demolition of a Waterford side that subsequently beat Galway and hung around with Kilkenny in the first semi final.
It's hard to see how Dublin can win this game without their injured stars but, in truth, it would be hard to see them winning the game even with them. However nothing is impossible in sport, and so let's look at how the Dubs might turn the bookies odds on their heads.
Firstly, Dublin's strength when playing well is two fold. It's a combination of physical strength and fitness in winning the ball, and then intelligence and purpose when using it. If either of these malfunction, then Dublin become very average indeed, and against Limerick, and Kilkenny in particular, they were let down by the subtleties in the game. Their passing, vision and decision making were poor in those games and it led to sub par performances, albeit a very important win against Limerick.
I do expect Dublin to be better in those departments this weekend as the load is definitely off them. As we faced into this championship season, there was a real sense of expectation around Dublin for the first time in many years. Winning the league onlyto lose to Galway in Leinster, or indeed to Limerick in the quarter final would have been a real setback for them despite the injury excuse. In fact, I believe their let down in the Leinster Final probably had it's roots in their own sense that they may actually be in a position to beat the Cats. They seemed inhibited and tight early on, and as Kilkenny stretched their legs that was always going to be a seriously bad starting point from which to launch an assault on the Bob O'Keefe cup.
The fact that they were able to do just enough to win against Limerick has put their season back into the black though, and they will treat this game as a real opportunity to cause a shock, and the very definition of nothing to lose. Anthony Daly has said on at least one occasion this year that Dublin hadn't hurled 'with abandon', so I expect to at least see that here.
If they do, then it will come down to individual performances and how they handle the ferocious Tipp forwards. I suspect the best way of limiting the damage they can inflict is with a sweeper either just in front or just behind the full back line, to try and stop the goal scoring threat of forwards like Seamie Callinan or Lar Corbett coming from deep. Tipperary like to deliver the ball in to a full forward line coming out the field, for deep running forwards to burst in for one on ones. Usually the result is a green flag and 3 points for the premier.
The other way to limit them, of course, is to stop ball coming in to them. And the best way to do that is to win it yourself, and not give it away when you do. For Dublin to do that, lads like Joey Boland, Alan McCrabbe, Liam Rushe and Ryan O'Dwyer will be vital. It is interesting that Ryan O'Dwyer has nominally been picked at centre forward, despite his goal scoring heroics last day out, and Liam Rush has been named at wing forward. This may be all mind games, but it may be because Anthony Daly realises that he needs to attack the Tipp half back line, and stop them launching the attacks that can prove so lethal. Conor O'Mahoney at centre back is having a solid, but unspectacular, year and Ryan O'Dwyer, if stationed there, might give his fellow Tipp man a lot of trouble.
Finally, if Dublin do manage to stymie the Tipperary attack, and manage to win enough ball out the field, then they must use it well. Paul Ryan has been in great form from frees, but if Tipperary are disciplined then the Dubs will have to score from play, and they will have to score goals. Clever use of the ball, a lá the league final against Kilkenny, will give point scoring opportunities which must be taken, but you suspect Dotsy O'Callaghan, or someone else, will have to rattle the net at least 3 times for Dublin to take the champions down.
Tipperary, from their point of view, must look at this match as a game that is there to be won. If they start considering Dublin's injuries, or begin looking forward to the Cats, then they could quite easily come a cropper. I'm sure Declan Ryan will be on guard for that though, and Tipp are experienced enough at this stage to make sure they are prepared, but complacency can set it, with the best will in the world. With that in mind Tipperary will be anxious to make a quick start. Don't be surprised if Tipperary try to engineer a goal or two in the opening 10-15 minutes to try and take the wind out of Dublin. A slow start can be hard to overcome if you are mentally 'off' at all, so I expect Tipp to come out firing to try and mitigate the risk of that happening.
Tipperary have matchwinners all over the field, from the platform of O'Keefe, O'Mahoney and particularly Padraic Maher (who may find Liam Rushe a close neighbour on Sunday) through the effervescent Shane McGrath in midfield and onto the lethal forward line powered by the industry of Patrick Maher and John O'Brien and the artistry of Noel McGrath, Seamus Callinan, Lar Corbett and Eoin Kelly. It's a frightening array of names written down, but the games are played on the field.
I expect Dublin to have a right lash, and anything bar a complete mauling will allow their season to be considered a success overall, but I've backed Tipperary at -8 in the handicap, and I think that might be around the mark.
Verdict. Tipperary by 9.
Dublin's cause is not helped by their long injury list, many of them long term, as they fell prey to the dreaded cruciate many times this year. How they would love to have the likes of Stephen Hiney, Tomás Brady, Conal Keaney, David Treacy and Oisin Gough in harness as they bid to dethrone the champions.
Of course the primary obstacle in Dublin's path is Tipperary themselves. A team that has been maturing steadily over the past 3-4 years and can now claim to be the best in the game having displaced possibly the greatest team of all time, Kilkenny's great 4 in a row side, last year. In fairness Tipperary do not seem to have rested on their laurels, as was predicted by several sage observers, and have, if anything, developed an even more ruthless streak than last year. This was never so pronounced as in the Munster Final 7 goal demolition of a Waterford side that subsequently beat Galway and hung around with Kilkenny in the first semi final.
It's hard to see how Dublin can win this game without their injured stars but, in truth, it would be hard to see them winning the game even with them. However nothing is impossible in sport, and so let's look at how the Dubs might turn the bookies odds on their heads.
Firstly, Dublin's strength when playing well is two fold. It's a combination of physical strength and fitness in winning the ball, and then intelligence and purpose when using it. If either of these malfunction, then Dublin become very average indeed, and against Limerick, and Kilkenny in particular, they were let down by the subtleties in the game. Their passing, vision and decision making were poor in those games and it led to sub par performances, albeit a very important win against Limerick.
I do expect Dublin to be better in those departments this weekend as the load is definitely off them. As we faced into this championship season, there was a real sense of expectation around Dublin for the first time in many years. Winning the league onlyto lose to Galway in Leinster, or indeed to Limerick in the quarter final would have been a real setback for them despite the injury excuse. In fact, I believe their let down in the Leinster Final probably had it's roots in their own sense that they may actually be in a position to beat the Cats. They seemed inhibited and tight early on, and as Kilkenny stretched their legs that was always going to be a seriously bad starting point from which to launch an assault on the Bob O'Keefe cup.
The fact that they were able to do just enough to win against Limerick has put their season back into the black though, and they will treat this game as a real opportunity to cause a shock, and the very definition of nothing to lose. Anthony Daly has said on at least one occasion this year that Dublin hadn't hurled 'with abandon', so I expect to at least see that here.
If they do, then it will come down to individual performances and how they handle the ferocious Tipp forwards. I suspect the best way of limiting the damage they can inflict is with a sweeper either just in front or just behind the full back line, to try and stop the goal scoring threat of forwards like Seamie Callinan or Lar Corbett coming from deep. Tipperary like to deliver the ball in to a full forward line coming out the field, for deep running forwards to burst in for one on ones. Usually the result is a green flag and 3 points for the premier.
The other way to limit them, of course, is to stop ball coming in to them. And the best way to do that is to win it yourself, and not give it away when you do. For Dublin to do that, lads like Joey Boland, Alan McCrabbe, Liam Rushe and Ryan O'Dwyer will be vital. It is interesting that Ryan O'Dwyer has nominally been picked at centre forward, despite his goal scoring heroics last day out, and Liam Rush has been named at wing forward. This may be all mind games, but it may be because Anthony Daly realises that he needs to attack the Tipp half back line, and stop them launching the attacks that can prove so lethal. Conor O'Mahoney at centre back is having a solid, but unspectacular, year and Ryan O'Dwyer, if stationed there, might give his fellow Tipp man a lot of trouble.
Finally, if Dublin do manage to stymie the Tipperary attack, and manage to win enough ball out the field, then they must use it well. Paul Ryan has been in great form from frees, but if Tipperary are disciplined then the Dubs will have to score from play, and they will have to score goals. Clever use of the ball, a lá the league final against Kilkenny, will give point scoring opportunities which must be taken, but you suspect Dotsy O'Callaghan, or someone else, will have to rattle the net at least 3 times for Dublin to take the champions down.
Tipperary, from their point of view, must look at this match as a game that is there to be won. If they start considering Dublin's injuries, or begin looking forward to the Cats, then they could quite easily come a cropper. I'm sure Declan Ryan will be on guard for that though, and Tipp are experienced enough at this stage to make sure they are prepared, but complacency can set it, with the best will in the world. With that in mind Tipperary will be anxious to make a quick start. Don't be surprised if Tipperary try to engineer a goal or two in the opening 10-15 minutes to try and take the wind out of Dublin. A slow start can be hard to overcome if you are mentally 'off' at all, so I expect Tipp to come out firing to try and mitigate the risk of that happening.
Tipperary have matchwinners all over the field, from the platform of O'Keefe, O'Mahoney and particularly Padraic Maher (who may find Liam Rushe a close neighbour on Sunday) through the effervescent Shane McGrath in midfield and onto the lethal forward line powered by the industry of Patrick Maher and John O'Brien and the artistry of Noel McGrath, Seamus Callinan, Lar Corbett and Eoin Kelly. It's a frightening array of names written down, but the games are played on the field.
I expect Dublin to have a right lash, and anything bar a complete mauling will allow their season to be considered a success overall, but I've backed Tipperary at -8 in the handicap, and I think that might be around the mark.
Verdict. Tipperary by 9.
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