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Saturday, August 6, 2011

Hurling takes centre stage, but unfinished Football business.

You know you are heading towards the end of the summer, such as it was, and even towards back to school for the kids when you start to have only one or two games per weekend. The August Bank Holiday is the last real blast of games, and that went very well as a neutral, as well as for the winning teams.

This weekend would normally just see the hurling semi final on Sunday but, due to some delays along the way, Tyrone are also on duty against Dublin in the last of the quarter finals on Saturday evening.
All Ireland Senior Football Quarter Final
Saturday August 6th.

Tyrone v Dublin.  7pm. Croke Park (Ref. Joe McQuillan)

The last in what has been a very good quarter final line up so far (Kerry v Limerick notwithstanding) sees the last of the Provincial Champions enter the fray. Dublin will be encouraged by the fact that Kerry, Mayo and Donegal have all managed to give lie to the theory that winning your province is actually a short cut to defeat in the All Ireland series. That said, Dublin will be upset that they have had even longer to wait before taking the field, and they have got to be a little bit rusty at this stage.

They were singularly unimpressive against Wexford in the Leinster Final, and the fact that all 3 of the full forward line were replaced during that game, albeit with injury in O'Gara's case, shows how Wexford managed to shut down the Dublin attack.

In this game, they face an even stiffer foe. While questions were correctly asked about the age of Mickey Harte's team earlier in the year, he has managed to blend in the likes of Swift, Donnelly, Cassidy, Peter Harte and Kyle Coney. This will be vital for Tyrone's future but also has revitalised this season too. If we are to believe the named team sheet (which is a perilous occupation these days) it appears that Mickey has continued to rejig his options with Ryan McMenamin finding himself off the first 26. Given the fact that Martin Swift is carrying a broken nose picked up against Roscommon, don't be surprised if Ricey finds himself manning his familiar berth this evening. Owen Mulligan has also been handed a nominal start at the expense of Kyle Coney, who must feel very disappointed, and Martin Penrose returns in place of Tommy McGuigan, who has struggled to find his feet in the inside line. As I mentioned though, this is all on paper as of now, and we won't be sure until we see the throw in.

Dublin themselves can be liberal with the truth when naming teams, but for what it's worth they have included Eoghan O'Gara in an unchanged forward line, despite the wrist injury he picked up in the Leinster Final. Gilroy has also named injury plagued Cian O'Sullivan at corner back in place of the very unfortunate Paul Conlon, while midfield is down as Denis Bastick and Eamon Fennell. Whether or not this is the team that actually takes the field is moot, but on the premise that it is, Dublin will have to figure out the best way to use that forward line. Diarmuid Connolly is potentially a match winner himself, but his confidence must be rocked by being replaced so often this year, while Bernard Brogan is at his best when operating in space, especially with brother Alan acting as provider and play maker. Which brings us to O'Gara. A good ball winner, and certainly a disruptive influence, it just seems to me that were Dublin to play to his strengths it is an entirely different approach. i.e. the long delivery to a target man. It seems to be a chalk and cheese approach at the moment, and that is not getting the best out of Dublin. Don't be surprised if Kevin McMenamin makes an appearance if O'Gara is injured or if the balance is not there, and I think that might be better for Dublin. O'Gara would remain a decent plan 'B' though.

And so the prediction. I've been struggling with this one all week, and I do think that Dublin are a more substantial team than they have been recently. They are a serious outfit, with solid defence, and the potential for a good attack, but I am really worried about Dublin's preparedness given their layoff, although ther lack of hype this year can only be advantageous. They were poor against Wexford for long stretches, which has helped to keep expectations in check. They were also victorious against Tyrone last year as their defensive solidity paid dividends. Last year though, it was Dublin coming in with games while Tyrone were on their layoff.

Tyrone still don't look like the Tyrone of old, and it took Dooher and Mulligan coming on to really put them at ease against Roscommon. Their forward movement was poor, Peter Harte was kept quiet, and it really took Sean Cavanagh to lay down the marker for his team. If Cavanagh can be kept in check, Tyrone will be in a bit of bother. Donnelly's habit of moving out the field might worry Dublin, but I still think Coney might find himself in at some stage, if not from the start. Penrose, Harte, Mulligan (as Dublin know too well) and Coney can all score, so Ger Brennan will have to shut down Brian McGuigan as playmaker.  On the other side, Tyrone have (with or without Ricey) the players to hold Dublin's forwards in my opinion. I think this game could well be very close, and while I would love to see Dublin advance, I think Tyrone's blend of youth and experience, with their lessons from last year applied, may be too much for a Dublin team that may struggle to start well. Do not be surprised if this becomes the second quarter final to go to extra time, but I'm going to say Tyrone to break up the Provincial winners' semi final party.

Verdict. Tyrone by 2

All Ireland Senior Hurling Semi Final

Sunday August 7th.

Kilkenny v Waterford. 3.30 pm. Croke Park (Ref. Barry Kelly)

Waterford proved they are made of the right stuff in their quarter final against Galway as they blew the tribesmen away in the second half with a mixture of determination, physical strength and skill. It was the perfect response to their disastrous outing in the Munster Final, but they were certainly aided and abetted by an extremely insipid Galway performance. Simply put, Galway didn't want to know when Waterford put the boot to the floor.

Davy Fitzgerald learned, or simply didn't fear Galway enough, from the Munster Final and played his best players in their optimal positions in the quarter final, especially in defence. This made their defence an awful lot more solid, and while Brick Walsh looked back to his imperious best, lads like Liam Lawlor, Noel Connors and Darragh Fives looked a lot more solid as a result. Tony Browne and Kevin Moran, who alternated between midfield and half back, rounded out an impressive defence.

Up front Shane Walsh was very impressive at full forward, while John Mullane used a stint out at centre forward to play himself into the game and looked much more like himself as the game progressed. Seamus Prendergast won a lot of ball around the half forward line as well, and all in all it was a much more accomplished performance.

Waterford will have to lift it again though, because in Kilkenny on Sunday they will be facing a side a lot closer to Tipperary's level than Galway approached in Thurles. Kilkenny will not shy away from the intense heat of championship hurling, so you better be prepared to match their hurling as well. That's where it gets tricky.

There is a sense that Kilkenny are not operating at the level they were 3 years ago, and that's probably true as no team could operate at that level indefinitely. Tipperary are probably up in that stratosphere at the moment, and the best in the game, but Kilkenny are still a fearsome force for most teams. It's hard to imagine a repeat of that 2008 final demolition, but it's still difficult to see a Waterford victory here.

Henry Shefflin's return to form and fitness is a huge win for Kilkenny. He was immense against Dublin in the Leinster Final, when Kilkenny stamped their impression on this championship, and is the natural leader of this attack. Richie Power, Eoin Larkin and TJ Reid are also powerful operators while Colin Fennelly looks to be inheriting Eddie Brennan's mantle as the 'head down straight for goal' merchant. Kilkenny's half back line, with the return of Tommy Walsh, is one of the most solid in the game, if not the most solid. JJ Delaney is a class act, and Brian Hogan is the latest in a line of imperious centre backs that appear to the manor born.

I cannot see the Waterford half forward line winning as much as they did against Galway, and while I cannot see Waterford imploding so spectacularly again, I don't think they'll be able to withstand the pressure that would then be brought to bear. Waterford will need goals to win this game, because I think Kilkenny will probably score a couple at least, and I don't think they'll get them. Waterford would be a brilliant story were they to somehow overcome Kilkenny, but it's impossible to build a convincing case for it happening. Kilkenny would have to be seriously off kilter, and Waterford even better than against Galway.

I could possibly see one of those happening, but not both together, so I'll go with the Cats to book their place in the showpiece on the first Sunday of September.

Verdict. Kilkenny by 6.

2 comments:

  1. Hard to argue with either bit of analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good analysis,

    Was at the Tyrone v Roscommon last week, would be worried about Tyrone full-back line, Roscommon full forward line won a ton of possession in the first half.

    Dublin may be a bit too physical for them, big issue for Dublin is Brennan at centre back, prone to doing something stupid, Brian Mcguigan will take him for quite a run around croke park today to open up the middle of the field. Should be an enthralling contest, a lot of storylines, potentiallly Mickey Hartes last game, dooher, o neill mulligan etc, and then the inability of the Dubs to handle adversity.

    Joemamas

    ReplyDelete